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Compare observed and modeled drawdowns without treating either as a forecast. Ending values use the same scenario path and scale from the source's $5,000 base to $5,000.
These are observed adjusted-close histories across broad and growth benchmarks and their daily-reset funds.
The sample combines falling equity valuations with higher financing rates, showing leverage and duration sensitivity in an observed period.
These are observed adjusted-close paths for the listed products.
Values scale linearly from the source's $5,000 assumption to $5,000. The vertical marker is the starting capital.
Calendar time from the pre-drawdown peak to full recovery; series without a recovery date remained below that peak through the available history.
| Series | Exposure | Ending value | Max drawdown | Recovered | Time underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYS&P 500 | 1× control | $4,096 | -24.5% | Dec 13, 2023 | 1.9 years |
| SSO (+2× long)S&P 500 | +2× long | $3,045 | -46.7% | Mar 1, 2024 | 2.2 years |
| UPROS&P 500 | +3× long | $2,141 | -63.9% | Jun 17, 2024 | 2.5 years |
| QQQNasdaq-100 | 1× control | $3,247 | -35.1% | Dec 13, 2023 | 2.0 years |
| QLDNasdaq-100 | +2× long | $1,816 | -63.7% | May 24, 2024 | 2.5 years |
| TQQQNasdaq-100 | +3× long | $917 | -81.7% | Dec 4, 2024 | 3.0 years |